The Government forecasts an annual average GDP growth of 4% for the next three years, IPN reports, with reference to the medium-term budgetary framework for 2019-2021 that was approved by the Cabinet.
The structure of the GDP will be modified. The share of the gross value added will decrease from 84.6% in 2017 to 83% in 2021, while the share of net taxes on products will increase following the fiscal administration reform. The rise in external demand will be mainly due to the larger private consumption and this will affect the GDP structure per utilization categories. The share of final consumption of domestic households in the GDP will rise from 86% in 2017 to 87% in 2021. The share of gross fixed capital formation will decline from 22% to 21%. The share of net exports will diminish from 28% to 26%.
The monetary policy during the next three years will continue to be aimed at maintaining the inflation rate within the National Bank’s target inflation of 5% ±1.5% so as to ensure the stability of prices in the medium term. The average exchange rate of the Moldovan leu against the US dollar is expected to decrease from 16.83 lei in 2018 to 18.51 lei in 2021. The rise in exports will decline from 15.1% to 5.7% in 2018-2021. The growth rate of imports will diminish from 17.4% to 5%.
The medium-term budgetary framework for 2019-2021 enumerates the risk factors that threaten this macroeconomic forecast, such as unfavorable weather conditions that affect agriculture and the sectors that process agricultural products, regional instability, negative developments in the economies of the main commercial partners of Moldova and of the countries that host Moldovan migrants.
The medium-term budgetary framework for 2019-2021 will be used by ministries and other central public authorities as support in drafting the state budget law and by the local public authorities in planning local budgets.
The GDP growth in 2017 was 4.5%.
