Moldova would have a population of 1.5m by 2130, expert

A study carried out in Moldova for the first time – the Population's Green Card – stresses the necessity of implementing social strategies and programs aimed at improving people's access to quality healthcare, preventing diseases, especially in rural areas, and creating an institution that will manage demographic data and processes, Info-Prim Neo reports. The study launched by the United Nations Population Fund and the National Commission for Population and Development analyzes the demographic indicators during 18 years, from 1990 until 2008. It focuses on such indicators as birth rate, death rate and aging and contains demographic forecasts for the future decades According to the study, the birth rate over 18 years dropped about two times, from 17.7% in 1990 to 10.9% in 2008. The families prefer to give birth to only one child, when they are older. The death rate in 2008 was 11.8%. At the start of 2000, the mortality rate in rural areas was by 60-65% higher than the rate in urban areas. Deputy Head of Parliament Iurie Tap said that the local and national strategies and policies formulated until present did not center on demographic problems. “The local and central authorities will use this study in their work. Only a scientific approach to the problem can help achieve what we planned,” he said. Minister of Labor, Social Protection and Family Valentina Buliga said that a division will be created to deal with demographic problems. “The findings of the study are rather worrisome. We all know the effects of migration and aging on Moldova's economy and its future. We need strategies to ensure Moldova's demographic security,” the minister said. The authors of the study include habilitate doctors, academicians Constantin Matei, Gheorghe Paladi, Valeriu Sainsus, Olga Gagauz. According to Boris Galca, UNFPA program coordinator, Moldova lacks highly qualified demography specialists who would thoroughly analyze the problem and a demographic institution. “50% of the men do not reach retirement age. The population diminishes and grows older. The number of elderly people increases, while of young persons decreases. The fertility is low. The death rate and the number of migrants is on the rise,” the expert said, stressing that these are only some of the problems that must be dealt with. The study forecasts that if these demographic trends persist, Moldova's population will decrease by about 1 million by 2050, down to 2.6 million. According to Boris Galca, by 2130 Moldova would have a population of 1.5 million.