Three scenarios for electing President of Moldova, Politicon

[Analysis and forecast of the political situation, made by the Political Consultancy and Strategic Research Center POLITICON, in connection with the December 16 presidential elections, and offered to Info-Prim Neo for publication] [Position of the main political players] [The Communist Party] The Communists model the political line in accordance with the decisions taken at the last plenary meeting of the Central Committee, which set as immediate objective the removal of the ruling alliance and the formation of a new majority in Parliament, dominated by the Communists, and the subsequent formation, based on this majority, of an anti-crisis government called the national salvation government. In order to achieve this objective – the dismissal of the Filat Government and the removal of the AEI from power – the Communists cause mass protests among the population and initiate the constitution of a People’s Congress, which will play the role of ‘bull’, in the operation to conquer the power by avoiding early legislative elections. The Communists lately reduced suddenly the criticism leveled at the Democratic Party and its leader Marian Lupu in the conditions in which the Democratic leader has announced his intention to run for the presidency on behalf of the AEI in the December 16 elections. The PCRM’s propagandistic resource uses especially intensely the attacks against the Liberal-Democratic leader and the Liberal Party, the Government and Prime Minister Vlad Filat. [The Democratic Party] The Democrats’ political line was made public in the last meeting of the party that involved leaders of the local organizations, where there was adopted the decision to field Marian Lupu as a candidate for the December 16 elections. Initially, such a step was explained by the necessity of testing the colleagues from the ruling alliance as regards their readiness to fulfill the obligations set out in the agreement on the formation of the alliance and to vote for the candidate of the Democrats. In several days, Marian Lupu made it clear that several members of the Communist faction are ready to vote for him, but refused to make public their names. Answering a question about the possible price that the Democratic Party is ready to pay for the support for its candidate by the Communists, the Democratic leader rejected the possibility of an alliance with the PCRM, saying some of the Communist lawmakers are ready to vote for him because they want to keep their seats by avoiding early legislative elections. [The Liberal Democratic Party] The Liberal-Democrats, whom the alliance partners suspect of unwillingness to vote for Marian Lupu, repeatedly rejected these suspicions. At the same time, the political line of the PLDM is to try to build a system of guarantees with a view to maintaining the AEI and its government over the next three years, making the government’s activity more efficient. This line is based on long-term objectives, including on the functionality of the AEI and, to a smaller degree, on personalized political positions. Most probably, the important decisions about the PLDM’s political position on all the acute problems, including its attitude towards Marian Lupu’s candidacy, will be made public in the party’s congress that will take place soon. [The Liberal Party] The Liberals’ strategic line is to maintain the AEI as the PL will have no alternative otherwise and will move to the opposition. The Liberals want Marian Lupu to be elected head of state as in this case he will free the post of Speaker for the Liberal leader Mihai Ghimpu. A major risk for the Liberals in this situation is not to mix up the priorities and not to compromise the strategic objective of keeping the Democratic parliamentary majority and its government while fighting for the post of Head of Parliament. [The Dodon Group] The political line of the Dodon group is to strengthen its position as a systemic opposition that equally criticizes the AEI and the PCRM. That’s why the Dodon group cannot vote for the official candidate of the AEI, Marian Lupu, for the presidency. But, unlike the PCRM, it is ready to vote for a neutral candidate in order to bring the political crisis to an end and confirm its role of systemic opposition, in its own interests. [The main political conclusions]: 1. The Communists will not vote for a candidate who will contribute to keeping the AEI in power; 2. The Communist parliamentary group will vote only if the AEI is destroyed afterward, this being the only method whereby the PCRM can return to power; 3. In such a situation, the AEI will maintain its power only if the head of state is elected by a common vote of all the AEI factions together with the unaffiliated MPs. [Possible scenarios] [Scenario 1]: Marian Lupu and his party colleagues will find the votes needed to elect the President among the Communist MPs, who, for their part, will leave the Communist group and will thus eliminate the suspicion of a secret agreement with Vladimir Voronin. Marian Lupu will be elected head of state by the votes of the AEI MPs and the unaffiliated lawmakers who will leave the PCRM with the aim of helping resolve the political crisis. [Scenario 2]: The Communist faction will take part in the December 16 elections in corpore or will delegate several MPs. In such conditions, the election of Marian Lupu as President with the votes of the Communists will mean the destruction of the AEI and the return of the Communists to power as a result of a complot with the Democratic Party. Such a scenario can be avoided only if the factions of the PLDM and PL refuse to take part in the voting. [Scenario 3]: The AEI will review the alliance formation agreement and identify a neutral candidate for the presidency, who will be voted in with the help of the Dodon group. The agreement will be modified by offering compensations to the PL, which will lose the post of Speaker. As a result, the political crisis will be overcome by electing a neutral candidate fielded by the AEI for the presidency and the AEI will remain in power for three more years to implement the necessary reforms. Moldova will keep its European integration course and the danger of an interethnic conflict caused by the Communists will be removed. [POLITICON]