The volume of foreign trade in goods in the Republic of Moldova is declining for the second consecutive year, following a record-high level in 2022, driven by re-exports to Ukraine and the strong agricultural production of 2021. According to economist Veaceslav Ioniță, last year, foreign trade in goods reached $12.6 billion, down from $13.5 billion in 2022. The drop in exports is primarily due to reduced shipments of petroleum products, vegetable oil, and cereals, IPN reports.
In 2022, exports amounted to $4.34 billion; however, economist Ioniță notes that this increase was largely fueled by re-exports to Ukraine, prompted by the war initiated by Russia. When excluding re-exports, data indicates that Moldova's net exports were already in decline. In 2024, exports fell to $3.56 billion, of which $2.71 billion represented net exports, while $580 million were re-exports. This negative trend has been further exacerbated by the loss of the Ukrainian market.
Another key factor affecting export fluctuations is the agricultural sector. Moldova had an exceptional harvest in 2021, leading to increased exports the following year. However, agricultural production has since declined, resulting in significantly lower agricultural exports.
Beyond agriculture, Moldova has also lost its position as a major exporter of petroleum products. In 2022, these exports reached $561 million, but by 2024, they had fallen to just $136 million. This decline is attributed to Moldova’s temporary role as a key re-export hub for petroleum products to Ukraine during the war, a trend that did not persist in the long run, the economist explains.
Although exports have declined in almost all countries, the expert highlights a few markets where growth has been recorded. Exports to the Czech Republic reached $218 million in 2024, up from $104 million in 2022. In the United States, Moldovan exports increased from $51 million in 2022 to $90 million in 2024, particularly due to higher demand for food products, plastics, and textiles. However, overall, Moldovan exports have been affected by external factors and the reduction in re-exports.
According to Veaceslav Ionita’s analysis, over the past ten years, 50% of Moldova's export growth has been driven by the agricultural sector, 30% by the automotive industry, and 20% by other economic sectors. Now, without a record agricultural harvest and without petroleum product re-exports, Moldova’s exports continue to decline - a trend that could persist into 2025.
