Boris Galca, UNFPA Assistant Representative in Moldova, is surprised by the published results of the 2014 Population and Household Census. He told IPN that the census was a nationwide investigation and the preliminary data should be food for thought for the authorities.
The expert remarked that that this was the second census carried out in Moldova after the country's independence. Moreover, this was a census of both population and households, a first-time event outside the EU (Moldova is the first CIS country to do it). The census was financed by the Government, which indicates a higher responsibility of the Executive in the conducting of the study. Additionally, this is the first time when the census data will be verified via a post-census survey.
“The census should be seen as a purely statistical exercise and shouldn't have any political connotations. UNFPA has supported Moldova in carrying out this task and has shared international expertise and practices with the national authorities regarding the study design and planning, data collection and data analysis. We appreciate that on a nationwide scale the census has been conducted satisfactorily, but there are lessons to be learned before the next one, which is due in 2021”, said Galca.
The UNFPA Assistant Representative explained that international standards recommend the publication of preliminary results 6 months after the finalization of the census. In Moldova's case, the deadline was December 31, 2014, so that the census can be included in the 2010 batch of regional censuses (conducted between 2005 and 2014). The National Bureau of Statistics has a maximum of 2 years and 7 months to publish the final results, according to the same international standards. However, if the questionnaire-processing capacity is high enough, the results could be published earlier.
“I wouldn't hurry to conclusions about the preliminary data and it's better to wait for the final results. I was somewhat surprised about the reported total population that is under 3 million people. The 2004 census reported 3.388 million persons and the 2014 says we have 2.9 million. Hypothetically, according to BNS data, we could say that Moldovan population decreased by 400,000 between 2004 and 2014”, said Galca.
He also pointed out the surprising figures about migrants. “Previously, there were reports about 700,000 Moldovans working abroad or even a million and everyone understood that Moldova didn't know how many of its citizens are abroad. Now, the census offers us a surprising number, much lower than what we expected. Nonetheless, it's better to see the final results”, said the expert.
According to him, carrying out the census was most difficult in Chisinau. “In rural areas, the coverage rates were high, but in Chisinau, about 30% of population hasn't been surveyed. According to BNS, the nationwide coverage rate is 94%, enough to validate the census”, said Galca.
He reminded that the census is the only reliable count of population. The preliminary data should be food for thought for the authorities that ought to think about demographic policies. The figures should also be taken into consideration when implementing the Government-approved national strategic program for demographic security. “Another surprising figure is that Moldova remains a rural country, contrary to the trend of emigration of rural youth, the aging of population and the disappearance of many villages from the map. The explanation might be that the 2004 census was flawed”, concluded Galca.
According to the preliminary data of the 2014 census, the population of Moldova is 2,913,281 people, including 329,108 (11.29%) who are in external migration.
